When you’re deeply involved in building products, whether you’re dreaming up new features or refining existing ones, there’s a sneaky little thing that can derail even the most well-intentioned efforts: confirmation bias.
It’s a natural human tendency. You get an idea, you form a belief, and suddenly, your brain starts looking for evidence to prove you right. It’s like putting on a special pair of glasses that only lets you see what confirms your existing views, while everything that contradicts them just fades into the background.
This can be incredibly dangerous in product development. You might be convinced you know “the best next thing to build,” but if you’re only seeking out information that supports your initial hunch, you’re putting your product at risk. You end up building something based on assumptions, hoping it will be a hit, rather than truly understanding what your customers need. As a result, you might inadvertently “perfectly build the wrong features, the kind of features your customers don’t care about”.
The Subtle Ways Bias Creeps In
Confirmation bias isn’t always obvious. It operates in subtle ways, often fueled by other cognitive biases that shape how we perceive reality.
One common pitfall is prior hypothesis and focusing on limited targets. This means you latch onto your initial idea or hypothesis and only pay attention to new information that supports it, ignoring anything that doesn’t fit. You become resistant to new information, especially if it contradicts your beliefs.
Then there’s the exposure to limited alternatives. Instead of exploring a wide range of options to solve a problem, you stick to a narrow set of choices. You might rely on intuition rather than a careful analysis of varied possibilities.
Another tricky bias is insensitivity to outcome probabilities. This happens when decision-makers see their current problems as completely unique, making them disregard past data or probability estimates from similar situations. They might think, “That happened to them, but our situation is different,” even when patterns suggest otherwise.
Finally, beware of the illusion of manageability. This bias has two parts. First, you might be overly optimistic about an outcome, believing it will turn out much better than objective reality suggests. Second, you might have a false sense of control over the outcome, underestimating potential negative consequences. You might think, “We can always fix it later by doing ‘something extra’,” which can lead to big problems down the line.
All these biases can make you filter incoming information, justifying it based on your prior understanding, or simply discounting anything that challenges your viewpoint. For product people, whose judgment and decision-making are paramount, this “blurry lens” can lead to the classic mistake of “build and hope people will come”.
The Antidotes: Practical Ways to Fight Bias
So, how do you shed these biased lenses and gain true clarity? It requires discipline, humility, and a commitment to openness.
1. Cultivate an Open Mind and Separate Problem from Solution. The very first step is to approach your work with genuine curiosity and an open mind. Be aware of your natural inclination to jump straight to solutions. Constantly ask yourself if you’re truly understanding the “what” (the problem) before rushing into the “how” (the solution). Remember, assumptions are “the cancer of product management”.
2. Think in “Bets.” Instead of definitive plans, frame your initiatives as “bets”. This mindset forces you to consider what professional capital you’re willing to wager. It makes you honestly assess how well you understand the customer problem and the proposed solution. It also encourages you to evaluate why this particular bet is the right one to make now, rather than simply executing on a mandate. This approach keeps you from chasing every problem out there, ensuring you focus on the most relevant ones for your product.
3. Actively Seek Contrary Evidence. This is crucial. Don’t just look for information that supports your belief; actively search for data and insights that challenge it. When you encounter information that goes against what you thought was true, acknowledge the discomfort it causes. This discomfort is where real growth happens. It’s about letting new information modify your existing knowledge appropriately, rather than dismissing it or letting it completely overwrite what you knew before.
4. Force Yourself to Consider Multiple Options. Never settle for the first solution idea that comes to mind. When making any significant decision, push yourself and your team to identify at least three viable alternatives. By deliberately assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each option, you’ll naturally confront your biases and make a more informed choice.
5. Ask Key Stakeholders for Expected Outcomes. Before launching a new feature or release, talk to your key players and stakeholders about their expectations. You might be surprised by the variety of responses you get. Gathering multiple perspectives can significantly strengthen your ability to resist confirmation bias, helping you ensure your product discovery is truly focused on finding the right problem to solve.
6. Involve the Entire Team in Discovery. Product discovery isn’t just for product managers. Make your developers, designers, and even quality assurance specialists part of the customer needs discovery process. When engineers, for instance, have “skin in the game” and genuinely understand the customer’s struggles, their focus often shifts from simply building “cool new things” to solving real problems for real people. This also helps bridge the gap between understanding the “why” and the “how”.
7. Define Outcomes and Metrics Before Solutions. Before you even think about building, clearly define the desired outcome of your work and, crucially, how you will measure its success. This is the essence of focusing on “outcomes over features”. What specific change or benefit will your product bring? What metrics will confirm this impact? This approach prevents you from becoming a “feature factory,” churning out functionality without clear purpose or measurable value. The quality of your software and robustness of your infrastructure are vital, but become “a moot point” if the software doesn’t solve customer needs or help the business.
8. Keep a Decision Journal. This is a powerful practice. For every consequential decision, log the details, the options you considered, and the outcomes you expect. Later, with the benefit of hindsight, you can reflect on these entries, learning which bets paid off and which didn’t, under what specific conditions. This discipline helps you build a more unbiased understanding of cause and effect in your professional journey.
Fighting confirmation bias is not a one-time fix; it’s an ongoing journey of continuous learning and adaptation. By nurturing an open mind, constantly questioning your assumptions, and actively seeking out diverse perspectives and challenging evidence, you empower yourself and your team to build products that truly make a difference in the world. It’s about building the “right things” that genuinely resonate with customer needs and business value, rather than just building things “right”.