Yesterday, I discussed how Atlas builds OpenAI’s interface-to-platform flywheel through continuity of context. Today, it’s an extension: the market structure implications of a company controlling all three layers of distribution.

The conversation about AI search misses the real shift.

This isn’t about which tool delivers better results. It’s about who controls the starting point for online activity and whether that control consolidates or fragments.

Google has held that position for two decades. Chrome captures 65% of browser share. Google Search handles 90%+ of queries. Those aren’t just metrics—they’re compounding distribution advantages. Defaults, data, and intent all flow through one system.

Atlas challenges that directly by positioning ChatGPT as the default interface for all web activity. Perplexity offers itself as an alternative to search, not a supplement. Google’s own AI Overviews synthesize answers at the top of search results, reducing click-through rates.

The shift from ad-based search to answer-based models is fundamentally a redistribution of power: who routes users, and on what terms.

Distribution as a three-layer stack

Distribution isn’t one thing. It’s a stack, and each layer compounds.

Intent capture is the moment someone decides what they want. Whoever owns that moment has leverage. Google captured it through defaults in Chrome and Safari. ChatGPT is capturing it by being the interface users open when they want answers. Where users start determines everything downstream.

Routing is where the platform decides what happens next. Traditional search routed you to a list of links. You chose. Answer engines route you to synthesized responses. You stop or they surface one source if you want more. The choice narrows. Routing power determines which sites get traffic, which businesses get customers, and which publishers get discovered.

Monetization follows routing. Google makes $70+ billion per quarter in ad revenue because it routes users to advertiser sites. If ChatGPT becomes the router, it captures that leverage—or chooses a different model. Subscriptions, affiliate fees, sponsored answers—all options, none proven at scale.

The shift isn’t just technological. It’s economic and structural.

Why consolidation is likely

The early competition looks chaotic—Google, OpenAI, Perplexity, and Microsoft all launching answer-based tools. But the dynamics favor consolidation.

Network effects compound quickly: more users generate more data, which improves answers, which attracts more users.

Defaults dominate behavior. Atlas bets that making ChatGPT the default browser interface shifts intent capture at scale. Google bets that AI Overviews keep users inside Search. Defaults are sticky; whoever wins that position controls routing for years.

Scale determines viability. Running AI models at query scale is expensive. Only a few platforms can afford it. The middle ground is unstable.

Bots are ruling the world: by 2030, we are looking at a multi-fold increase in the bot searches compared to humans. If that happens, the market structure compresses. One or two platforms control intent capture, routing, and monetization. The web becomes less distributed, more platform-dependent.

Strategic implications

For Google: you’re cannibalizing your core business to stay relevant. The test is whether you can transition the revenue model before ad decline forces cuts.

For OpenAI and Perplexity: you have better technology but no distribution moat (yet). The test is whether you can capture defaults before users settle into new habits.

For publishers: you lose traffic either way. The test is whether you can create content that answer engines can’t synthesize by original reporting, proprietary data, investigative depth, or rethink distribution entirely.

This shift concentrates power. Fewer platforms controlling more of the routing layer raises questions about neutrality, privacy, and economic sustainability that no one has answered yet.

The better question isn’t whether this shift happens. It’s whether it creates a healthier internet or a more concentrated one.